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Hurricane season: June 1-Nov. 30
Here’s a look at what to expect based on this year’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast.
How active a season?
There’s an 85% chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. A separate Colorado State University forecast says there’s a 61% probability of a named storm striking within 50 miles of Palm Beach County, with a 34% probability of a hurricane hitting and a 15% probability of a major hurricane coming ashore.
How many storms?
NOAA estimates there will be 17 to 25 named storms, with eight to 13 becoming hurricanes, and four to seven being Category 3 or higher. These predictions are the highest ever for NOAA, which started issuing May forecasts and August updates in 1998.
What’s behind the prediction?
NOAA expects “near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.”
What are the storm names?
This year’s reserved names are Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie and William.
What happened last year?
2023 was above-normal with 20 named storms (seven hurricanes), but only one hurricane — Idalia — made landfall in the U.S., striking near Keaton Beach in Florida’s Big Bend region.
How good are the predictions?
NOAA began using a new forecast model in 2023, which also helped improve predictions of storm intensity. The bad news? NOAA has actually under-predicted the number of named storms in three of the last four years.
Sources: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Colorado State University Tropical Weather & Climate Research
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